Do the Anti-Aging Drugs Work?
March 20, 2035 - There was a lot of buzz around the life extension drugs that hit the market a decade ago. They didn’t promise you to live forever but they gave you a chance to maybe extend your life with an extra five to ten years. But do they work?
The life expectancy rate at birth is currently about 82 years in the US, up from 78 years in 2005. But even though the life expectancy rate at birth has increased significantly, the life expectancy for seniors hasn’t improved that much. Basically, you have a greater chance to become senior, but you will not have a much longer lifespan, and this is where the anti-aging drugs intend to kick in.
Life extension came to public knowledge in the beginning of the 1980s and has mainly been based on a couple of different preventive methods. Calorie restriction combined with an in general healthy diet, and nutritional supplementation with for instance antioxidant supplements like vitamins.
Then there are a lot of other methods related to extending life, like replacing organs and repairing damaged tissues, and for instance the development in regeneration that makes parts of your body grow back. These methods though are still mainly available to people in general health care. A good bet to live longer is still to keep up a healthy lifestyle with less stress, plenty of physical exercise and proper diet.
I sat down with Stella Eggen from Sedalia, Missouri on her 103rd birthday last week. Stella is a virile woman with lively eyes and a crisp mind. She had to give up playing tennis at the age of 91 because her eight year younger tennis partner couldn’t keep up the pace.
Stella is born on the same day in 1932 as George Eastman, the founder of the Eastman Kodak Company and inventor of roll film, committed suicide at the age of 77. George ended his life to avoid a battle with spinal stenosis, a medical condition that occurs with aging (he left a suicide note that read: “My work is done. Why wait?”).
I asked Stella if she had heard about the life extension drugs. “Of course I’ve heard of them, people keep reminding me all the time, even though they know that the drugs will not have any effect on me. I am too old”, she says with a smile.
But if they had been available earlier would she have been interesting in taken them? “I don’t know. I’m pretty satisfied with the life I’ve had but of course I wouldn’t mind to stay around for another decade. But taking drugs regularly for half my life to make that extra decade, I probably could have spent my money on better things.”
“My grandson got one of these space trips for Christmas. He says he has become an entirely new person after he got out in space for thirty minutes, looking down on Earth. I think that prolonged his life more than any drugs could. If I only could pass the physics test I would have liked to join.”
Apart from the space trip, if she could live her life all over what would she then do differently? “You can always regret things that you didn’t do more, but one shouldn’t dig to deep into that. But I wish I had made more true friends, and taken more chances, not worrying about a lot of stupid things, and eaten more ice cream, I love ice cream.” Then she slowly leans towards me “...and had more sex of course”, she whispers giggling.
So, do the anti-aging drugs work? Well, it is way too early to tell. The sales so far clearly show that people at least are willing to give it a try, and with the annual cost of US$1,300 per person, the companies behind the dream are making good money.
It will take about 30 to 40 more years for the study groups to reach the age where the researchers can give some sort of definite answer about the final effect, if they ever will. During this time new drugs will hit the market and have the same time span to give a proper result. So if you should take the drugs or not, and which drug you should take, will during your lifetime (whether you succeed to extend it or not) be up to your own belief.
Until then you can enjoy your life more if you go on a space trip, don’t stress, stop worrying, take more chances and have more, yes you know what I mean...ice cream, of course.
Argument: The numbers of the current US life expectancy rate at birth comes from the National Center for Health Statistics. The future of anti-aging drugs are based on several sources, for instance the article “Resveratrol may slow aging” from Fortune Magazine. Information about George Eastman can be found at Wikipedia.
Questions: What other developments in the near future can prolong human life? Should there be any limits for what actions that could be taken to extend human life?
January 19, 2035 - According to the latest statistics presented this week, 1 million hydrogen-fueled cars have now been sold in the US. The figures for last year show an increase in sales by 50% from 2033.
January 8, 2035 - With a first prize of seven million US dollar and the intriguing plot of trying to fool or outsmart Arnold, the most advanced artificial intelligence in public use, the much hyped live show “Fooling Arnold” became the people’s choice this Saturday.
December 20, 2030 - The launch yesterday of the virtual realistic-looking human newscaster from Simple News gained rave reviews. Others have made several attempts earlier, but this sends the live newscasters in to a pretty shaky future.
December 18, 2020 - This year shows strong growth for wind power when the total global installed capacity added a record 62,000 MW, making the total capacity more than 680,000 MW. Wind power is by far the renewable source with the largest growth in worldwide capacity during the last decade.
December 15, 2030 - There's no doubt what the most popular Christmas present will be this year. Influenced by the launch of the first manned mission to Mars next month, you will most likely get a present with stars, a gift card for a spacetrip.
November 19, 2040 - Today was a historic day for Iceland when their President this morning at a symbolic ceremony officially shut down the last gasoline pump in the country. Iceland is a model country when it comes to the fuel transition from gasoline to hydrogen and became today the first country in the world to complete it.
September 21, 2050 - At a press conference today it was announced that the first tourist heading for Mars will be the 38-year-old US businessman Patrick Clifford. He will leave the earth in the launching window of June 2052 and set his foot on the surface of Mars in November, together with the other 6 astronauts assigned for the mission to further explore the planet.
September 12, 2035 - Are you kidding? Is it possible to beam myself? No, of course not, but you can now make a 3-D projection of yourself anywhere in the world. The first product for real teleimmersion has been released, the Telebeamer.
September 5, 2035 - More than 20,000 quadriplegics around the world have now got a BCI, a Brain Computer Interface. It gives them the ability to control their environment, from driving their own electric wheelchairs outside their house, to make their own dinner.
Comments:
I'm not sure I really understand what you are trying to discuss here. In my opinion, anti-aging (as cream, drugs, etc) are not meant to extend or prolong people's life. They are simply made to make people LOOK younger, by reducing wrinkles, lines around the eyes, or anything else related to appearance.
As for me myself, I don't intend to live hundreds years of life if I'm not in a good health and condition. It's a matter of quality of life itself.
Posted by: Devi Girsang
Devi the mistake you're making is that you're thinking of today's "anti-aging" drugs which like you said only targets current age related imperfections. What the article is talking about is things like gene therapy, telermerase therapy, organ replacement and other medical options that would keep you at optimal health or in other words a stateless existence.
As for myself I am planning on living thousands if not millions of years. I'm not afraid of technology and would welcome cognitive enhancements, mind uploading, and therapies designed to extend my life. I plan on exploring this Milky Way Galaxy in a thousand years or so and that exploration itself should take a few million years. In the end the goal with an infinite life is to have goals, living aimlessly will only be satisfying for a little while and after that having no purpose will make life meaningless.
Posted by: FTLNewsFeed
I do believe we can live long time and be able to see what is out there in the sky. We do need lots of our precious time and
energy to dedicate ourself
in exploring the universe.
We can then finally broaden
our perspective in life and
advance our civilization.
Posted by: mike
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Posted by: Lasonya Trigueiro
I would love to live another 100 years. I hope no one is looking for us out there, they would not like what they see. I wish our emotional lives could advance much more quickly than our intellect...Than we might save our existance.
Posted by: Richard Ames
Dear Sir,
I certainly hope that we could have more keen and expand our knowlwedge of what is out there and do
accomplish lot more in
advancing our civilization.
Thank you.
mike
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Posted by: Fotki
Again, I disagree with the timeline of this article.
Sirtris, one of the leading research firms for anti aging medicine anticipates having their medicine on the market with 5-10 years. I've been painstakingly following and anticipating the results from the trials.
Plus, there are about 3 other drug development comapanies that could play a major role for the development of major drugs and then... you also have to take into consideration of how the industry is going to grow within the next 20 years. I don't really expect to really start until 2020 maybe even a little earlier... Definelty by 2025 it will be in full force...
By 2025, we should start to see a new generation of anti aging medicine. That based on nano technology and/or a more advanced understanding of aging and drugs to accompany it.
Either way, 2035 will be the year of the third wave a of anti aging medicine which should nearly stop or completely reverse the aging process.
Asides from anti aging medicine, quality of life for seniors should be superb... the cancers, and deadly diseases associated with aging should be very treatable if not already cured by 2030-2035.
I also doubt companies will sell life extension medicine as life extension medicine. They will probably sell it to you as a youthful body rejuvination pill or cream.
Posted by: Evan
totally degree with the last part of the article. 30 years after 2035 is 2065. We'll should be able to design a super intelligent system sometime between 2035-2050. Which will radically changer everything as we ever new it. In 2035 researchers will have devices that can monitor how your cells are aging. To tell if they are working in another 30-40 years is just completely implausible.
I like the space trip mention in the article though. I want to be a test pilot for the future private space industry. :)
Posted by: Evan
This is very interesting. the comments on this blog are very discriptive and this will help me for my project. Thanks :)
Posted by: Hannah
There are a few points worth making here.
Firstly the testing that's been done to date on these drugs is spurious at best. It's also very dangerous ground when you've got scientists testing something that, if positive results turn up, huge amounts of money will be made. People have a vested interest in "proving" one test outcome over another. Very dangerous indeed.
Secondly, looking young for your age needn't require drugs at all... at least not to look "naturally" young for your age. Everyone knows there are things you can do just to take good care of your body, your skin, your mind, and so on.
It's all another crazy industry to me.
Celia
Trilastin
Posted by: Celia
The thing i like about your blog is that you always post direct to the point info.`,".;
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