China has Passed the US as the World's Largest Economy
February 21, 2040 - Analysts report that China passed the US as the largest economy in the world last year. With a nominal GDP* of US$29,300 billion for year 2039, China is ahead of US with more than US$500 billion. China has tenfold their GDP over the last 35 years.
The US was the world’s largest economy for about a century, since the British Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the world’s third largest economy in year 2034 with the help of their growing population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.
Even though China has passed the US in total, the US is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per capita with US$73,830, followed by Japan, United Kingdom and France, among the largest economies in the world. China, as the second most populous country in the world, has a GDP per capita of US$20,610, more than twice as much as India on US$8,180.
Argument: The numbers are based on the report Brazil, Russia, India and China - A Road in 2050 by Goldman Sachs, but have been revised according to the latest GDP data in the World Economic Outlook (September 2006 edition) from the International Monetary Fund.
Questions: What impact will China have on the rest of the world with a tenfold increase of the Chinese economy? How will the Chinese culture affect other parts of the world, compared to for instance the American culture today?
*Nominal Gross Domestic Product measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country expressed in current prices.
By Pontus Edenberg
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Comments:
Hasn't this already happend?
Posted by: Thomas
China is second in the World to the US when it comes to GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) which equalizes the purchasing power of different currencies in their home countries for a given basket of goods. But this article relates to the Nominal GDP.
Posted by: Pontus Edenberg
World GDP as a percentage (2005 tp 2040)
-------------------------
Orient 19% (8% to 25%)
Africa 17% (5% to 25%)
Europe 16% (5% to 25%)
Saarc 14% (5% to 20%)
English America 10% (4% to 25%)
Latin America 10% (3% to 20%)
Asean 8% (3% to 15%)
Middle East 6% (3% to 15%)
Other -
Other includes Central Asia, Oceania and Antartica.
Posted by: Budrick Jones
World Population
----------------
Orient 1500 million
Saarc 1500
Africa 900
Europe 800
Asean 600
Latin America 500
English America 400
Middle East 400
Other 50
-----------------
World 6650 million
Posted by: Bubba
World Religion/ Philosophy
--------------------------
Christianity 1500 million
Islam 1000
Hinduism 1000
Buddhism 1000
Taoism 1000
Animism 1000
Other 150
------------------------
World 6650 million
Posted by: Bubba
I am a follwer of Buddist Hinduism.
Posted by: Raj
I don't think this will happen. Of course today's most powerful countries, especially those on the upper part of the earth, won't let this happen. They will do everything to stint China's growth. And imagine how scary it is if China's economy becomes the world's largest. I really believe that it should NEVER ever happen.
Posted by: Mike
World GDP over the last 2000 years. I think Latin America will be ok.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_by_past_GDP_%28PPP%29
Posted by: Historian
I think you will like this map, I made it personally based on information on this site and the internet in general.
http://img479.imageshack.us/img479/5752/economicgroupsri3.png
Posted by: Jorge
Looks pretty accurate
Posted by: Iamnotimportant
I disagree. China is unlikely ever to overtake the USA in the 21st century. Also, Japan would probably still remain the 2nd largest economy in the world until circa 2025. Chinese businesses are still dependent on foreign customers and tools. So they do not have experience in survivng the rigour of free competition.
Posted by: Sadat
This will happen way before 2040, because the American economy is going down faster than ever. The rest of the world is pumping money out of the US at a high rate. If this continues, the US will face unpayable debt and high inflation. What I miss in the news is: what wil happen with the euro/dollar rate en yen/dollar rate? This will also affect the US economy.
Posted by: Nick
I am a chinese and I am satisfied with china economy growth. 2040, I don't care about who's the big brother. but I am sure at that time china will be much stronger. that guy, u need not scary about china become bigger. you see, 10 yrs ago, I thought clothes made in hongkong are famous brand, but now, I prefer to wear hugoboss green.
Posted by: wen
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3852891107486285806&q=municator
Posted by: Epoch 2
Alright, I'm gonna be honest. This will NEVER happen. China is eventually going to have a point where it's communism fails and there will be such a large mix-up that their economy will flop for a while. By the time this has all happened it will be 2050-2070. Then, after becoming a full democracy they will have to continue their growth and it will much too hard to catch up with the United States. The recession in the US now can't be that long because people are going to start to change things in the US, and FAST. I totally agree with Mike. This is also a very far left and biased site and most of the things on here are just educated guesses. The world never turns out how people think it will. In the forties people thought we would be in space shuttles and have space homes and robot maids, but that hasn't happened quite yet, has it?
Posted by: Nickolas Post
Exchange rate effects the Volume of trade. See Illustration in the link.
http://img361.imageshack.us/my.php?image=volumeoftradeqy5.jpg
Posted by: Exchange Rate