News of Future

Millionth Gay Marriage in the US

2012-01-24T10:17:05Z

January 24, 2025 - On Saturday, Jane Wilson and Darla Schwartz will get married in front of their 28 guests at a church in their hometown Stockton, California. Their wedding will however attract some extra attention, since it will be the one-millionth gay marriage in the US.]]> Same-sex marriages were first allowed in the state of Massachusetts already in 2004, but since the marriages did not get federal recognition, the happy couples were not entitled to the federal benefits. But since the bill passed seven years ago with the federal support of gay marriages, they have the same rights as any other marriage couple.

Currently there are 20 states that recognize same-sex marriages, where about 140,000 wedding certificates were filed last year. Another 12 states allow civil unions, of which some most likely will accept marriages in the near future. The statistics is not that precise to know exactly where the millionth gay marriage will take place so Jane and Darla's wedding is more a symbolic choice based on estimations by gay organizations.

Jane and Darla have been seeing each other for five months and are looking forward to the Saturday wedding to be followed by a couple of weeks off to Hawaii. "It was meant to be a nice little wedding with our closest friends but of course we are happy to be a part of the progress of gay rights", says Darla.

Jane contributed to the gay marriage statistics four years ago in a relationship that ended in a divorce 18 months later. "This time I feel that is so right, Darla is the one I want to share my future with", she says smiling.

Argument: The number one million is based on a federal approval of same-sex marriages with federal benefits by 2018, the gay marriage rate of Massachusetts, and other relevant data.

Questions: What affects will gay marriages in general have on society? Will an approval of gay marriages make way for the gay population in general and in what way?

Pamela Holds the Future in Her Newly Grown Hand

2012-01-22T09:04:21Z

January 22, 2040 - Former French karate champion Pamela de Robien lost her left hand in a car accident and saw her career being shattered. With regeneration her hand has now grown back and she is heading for the Olympics later this year.]]> It was a late evening in December 2038 and Pamela was driving from her home in Aubagne, just outside Marseille in France, to her parents to celebrate Christmas. A trailer from a truck slid over to the wrong side of the road and Pamela got away severely bruised with left hand crushed.

“When I got over the immediate shock from the accident my first thought was that my career in karate was over. Already in the emergency at the hospital I was told that it could grow back again. They even told me that I could go back to karate in the future, but I didn’t believe them”, Pamela says.

After surgical and medical treatment her left hand has now grown back and is fully functioning, just 13 months after the accident. She went back to training after 6 months, with just the stump with five small bumps. Now all the fingers are in the same size as on the right hand so she can perform a correct haito.

Before hand regeneration became common the solution for a person to get a hand back was a hand transplant. It was a quite complicated procedure that was first successfully performed in 1998. The patient had to be on post operation drugs for long time and in some cases it didn’t work out, so the hand had to be removed. In total 152 hand transplants worldwide were performed until the last one in year 2023.

Regeneration had been known with animals for a long time, but it wasn’t until the beginning of this century that breakthroughs were made in humans. We have always been able to grow back a fingertip by ourselves, but by copying how some animals did it, it was transferable to humans.

Pamela is now in full training to fight her way back in to the French karate team for the Olympics later this year in Abuja, Nigeria. “I’m so very fortunate to be able to do this when looking at the pictures of what was left of my hand after the accident. To be able to step in to an Olympic arena representing my country would definitely show that everything is possible!”

Argument: Progress in the understanding of regeneration in mammals gives hope of humans being able to regrow organs and other parts of the body. Ellen Heber-Katz, Ph.D. at the Wistar Institute predicts that we will able to do limb regeneration in a near future. Karate is one of the sports to most likely be added to the Olympics and might be so by year 2020. Even though the safety on the roads will increase by 2040, it will not completely stop accidents to occur.

Questions: Is regeneration a solution for humans to stop aging? What ethical issues are there to regenerate organs?

1 Million Hydrogen-Fueled Cars in the US

2012-01-19T10:12:43Z

January 19, 2035 - According to the latest statistics presented this week, 1 million hydrogen-fueled cars have now been sold in the US. The figures for last year show an increase in sales by 50% from 2033. ]]> The hydrogen fleet is still dominated by hydrogen-hybrids even though several fuel cell models have been introduced in the market during the last couple of years. The price for a hydrogen-hybrid is still about 20% higher than for a regular gasoline-hybrid, which make it more expensive to own and drive. The reason for the sale increase is more related to the hydrogen hype for environmental purposes, although mainly all hydrogen is produced from fossil fuels, like natural gas.

The latest environmental effort is the introduction of the Re-Hydro label last year to stimulate the production of hydrogen produced through electrolysis, based on a source of 100% renewable energy. The production is still quite limited and it is only available at selected stations. The current price is about 10% over the regular price for hydrogen, and will most likely not have a major impact until more producers switch from regular production to Re-Hydro.

The transition to hydrogen in the US is moving slow compared to a country like Iceland where already 80% of the car fleet runs on hydrogen. They are planning to set a date of when to shut down the last gasoline pump on Iceland, and it looks like it will be around the year 2040. When that day arrives in the US it will mean a lot to the global environment.

Argument: The development of hydrogen-fueled is based on several different sources, with the optimistic scenarios for a fast introduction on the market, to the book The Hype about Hydrogen by Joseph J. Romm. Except from the development in technology and the production and distribution of hydrogen, the price of gasoline will be the key to how fast hydrogen alternatives will reach a mass market.

Questions: Will there be other fuel alternatives to hydrogen when gasoline will be replaced?

Dentists Keep the Smile

2012-01-16T19:29:14Z

January 16, 2025 - The toothwash has now passed toothpaste in market share in the US with even more effective products in the works. The fear some dentists might have felt of losing their job when the toothwash entered the market seems so far to be unfounded.]]> Based on new development in microbiology the toothwash was seen as a revolution when introduced, preventing the dental caries from even getting established. Now people only wash their teeth once a day instead of the previous recommendation of brushing the teeth two times a day and flossing. The most popular kind of toothwash is the one including tooth whitening.

The result from the toothwash was stunning, when used as recommended reduced the prevalence of dental caries by up to 50% compared to tooth paste. Barry Fair, a practicing dentist from Lansdale, Pennsylvania gives an explanation of the slow transition to toothwash although the exceptional result: “We recommend people to use the toothwash instead, but people in general are used to brush their teeth with paste and as long as they don’t have any major problems they continue with that. Families with small children are the easiest one to convert to toothwash." The 20% higher price for toothwash for the daily use is most likely playing a role too.

Toothpaste was the king in the dental care shelf of the grocery stores for almost a century, after people gave up on tooth powder about the same time as fluoride was added to tooth paste. Even though suggested by dentists, floss never really made it through to the US public. Only about 50% of the population flossed regularly and 10-15% on daily basis according to surveys at the time.

As of year 2024 there were 185,600 professionally active dentists in the US, compared to 175,700 dentists 20 years ago. There has been a greater demand for dentists with a growing and aging population, but in the same time technological and biological developments have made dentistry more efficient. The need for a regrowth of dentists has been steady though since 50,000 dentists have gone in to retirement over the last two decades.

“Due to the praise of toothwash when introduced in the market, and the way it was marketed as doing wonders, I think people in general relied to much on it. The result was that in some cases people just washed their teeth once a week and that definitely gives you poor result”, Barry Fair says. “I’m not worried about looking for a new job in the future because at least when it come to caries, there will be enough to do as long as people don’t wash their teeth properly at least once a day, and don’t eat too many times between the regular meals.”

Argument: The development in microbiology will give more efficient products in dental care with better protection and easier maintenance. The numbers given of flossing and current dentists in the US comes from the American Dental Association.

Questions: Will it be possible to include the necessary preventing substances in the food that we eat, so we don’t have to think about dental care? What can other inventions in dental care result in?

Looking for a great local dentist? Contact Dr. Safarian, who is thought to be the best dentist in San Diego

Fooling Arnold Made a Clean Sweep in Saturday Ratings

2012-01-08T13:52:37Z

January 8, 2035 - With a first prize of seven million US dollar and the intriguing plot of trying to fool or outsmart Arnold, the most advanced artificial intelligence in public use, the much hyped live show “Fooling Arnold” became the people’s choice this Saturday.]]> If you haven’t seen the show yet, it takes place in an ancient castle where eight people should solve different tasks while constantly conversing with Arnold. The contestants should try to convince or fool Arnold to believe certain facts about them. The viewers can take part during the show to tell if a person is lying or not, and also find out how Arnold is reasoning.

The four worst liars spotted by Arnold from each show have to leave and is replaced by the four best lying-spotting viewers who are flown in to the show the following week, giving their best shot to fool Arnold. More than 32 million people was reported to watch the show live this Saturday and of them 5 million took part in figuring out the lying scheme.

The extraordinary prize amount is sponsored by the consortium of companies behind the Arnold technology. They are hoping that the publicity around the show will give them a good return on their investment, when aiming towards the media market to make different Arnolds host radio and TV shows.

But they are playing a somewhat dangerous game putting more than the money on the line. What happens if Arnold is not able to spot the liars? Then there wouldn’t be much of interest in Arnold. It is a bit to early to say after just one show, but hopefully they have done their homework testing Arnold before they went all in.

Arnold is of course analyzing the response from the public and with 5 million opinions of who is lying and when this Saturday, Arnold got a pretty good input for one day’s work. This regular weekly input and the evaluation of it is a guarantee for Arnold to not make a fool of himself in the show.

Several parent groups have protested in various media before the premiere of the show. They object to the connection between such a high reward and the fact that you win it by being the best liar. They are afraid that kids should start the game with each other and in a more extended way accept lying in their daily communication.

The producers behind the show defend it with that the task for Arnold, as well as the viewers, is to spot the liars. If people get better in spotting liars, there will be less room for lying, which would result in the opposite effect.

Argument: Artificial intelligence will develop rapidly during year 2020-2030 and by then the computers are at the same level as the human brain. The communication with that intelligence can then be used for entertainment to create new TV show formats. Even though all TV shows will be available whenever you would like to watch them in year 2035, there will still be live shows like “Fooling Arnold” where the viewers can participate in the show from home.

Questions: What other new TV formats can be considered based on artificial intelligence or new technologies? What other new entertainment channels can become available with this new technology?

Is there a Future for Live Newscasters?

2011-12-20T14:28:18Z

December 20, 2030 - The launch yesterday of the virtual realistic-looking human newscaster from Simple News gained rave reviews. Others have made several attempts earlier, but this sends the live newscasters in to a pretty shaky future.]]> Personalized presented news started to get popular with the spread and development of various online services 30 years ago. With the increase in television over Internet in the past decade, broadcasted news based on your own interests, international or local within any areas, with digital presenters have become the most popular way to consume news.

News shows with live newscasters have been around since the birth of network broadcasting in the 1940s, but have lately lead a languishing life next to the new trends. To have “real” people present the news has for some though been a guarantee of the authenticity of the news.

The technical and commercial success of the movie “Tickle” in year 2020 proved the possibilities to animate realistic-looking humans. The development of animated simultaneous lip-syncing has been the key to make an animated person trustworthy as a news anchor. Combining this with the latest text-to-speech technology makes Simple News’ version the most attracting so far. You can choose what kind of presenter you would like in regards to age, sex, race etc and there are also some celebrity presenters to choose from, like real presenters, actors and athletes.

Since we humans are so well trained to see human behavior in detail when it comes to movements, facial expressions etc, a combination with the trust and authority needed from a news anchor, have maybe made this the most challenging task in animation.

So, does this mean the end to live newscasters or do they have a future? There will probably be people that will continue to prefer the live newscasters for the knowledge of having a real person delivering them. But in the long run and with a wider spread of services like this, the live newscasters will be pushed aside to a small niche that eventually most likely will fade away.

The development of artificial intelligence also suggests a more interactive communication with news services in the near future, where you as a viewer will be able to ask the presenter questions related to the news, to get the background information that you feel is relevant to the news. This feedback from the viewer will also trigger the news service to update the viewer’s profile to deliver the news in an even more specific and personalized way next time.

Argument: News services are moving towards more automatically aggregated personalized news. This in combination with the increasing speed of processing information and decreasing cost will make it possible for virtual realistic-looking human newscasters.

Questions: What other features can the technology of virtual realistic-looking humans be used for? Can there be any negative effects of such a development?

By Pontus Edenberg

Another Great Year for Wind Power

2011-12-18T08:36:46Z

December 18, 2020 - This year shows strong growth for wind power when the total global installed capacity added a record 62,000 MW, making the total capacity more than 680,000 MW. Wind power is by far the renewable source with the largest growth in worldwide capacity during the last decade.]]> The US was quite slow adopting wind power compared to many European countries, but passed Germany as the biggest producer of wind power in the world in year 2008. Then China passed the US in 2010. US now has a capacity of 141,000 MW compared to 92,000 MW for Germany. China was the country with the strongest growth related to the total capacity, adding another 20% with 154,000 MW installed.

US is though behind Europe when it comes to wind power as part of the total electricity demand, serving only 6%, compared to 12,7% for Europe. Denmark is with 40% still the country with the highest share of wind energy, most likely reaching 50% within the next five years. Even though wind power as a renewable resource has its environmental advantages, the increasing demand for wind power is related to the low cost for the energy output, pressed down with more efficient larger wind turbines and the maturity of the market.

The trend in the last decade of wind energy has been towards more offshore sites. In Europe, offshore now counts for about 11% of all wind power capacity, compared to less than 2% 15 years ago. The already projected wind farms give a forecast of about 50% of the total European capacity to be offshore by year 2030.

Argument: Wind power has had a strong growth during the last decade and will continue to. The numbers are from the European Wind Energy Association, the American Wind Energy Association, the Danish Wind Industry Association, the German Wind Energy Association.

Space Trip - Christmas Present of the Year

2011-12-15T09:24:21Z

December 15, 2030 - There's no doubt what the most popular Christmas present will be this year. Influenced by the launch of the first manned mission to Mars next month, you will most likely get a present with stars, a gift card for a spacetrip.]]> The interest in the suborbital trips (100 km above the surface of the Earth) have grown steadily since the launch 20 years ago, but the market has basically exploded this year since the official announcement of the Mars mission. More low cost spacelines have entered the market and you can now find suborbital flights for as low as US$ 3,495.

Space tourism is one of the markets that have developed the most during the last decade, with the opening of the Starbright Hotel on the moon, as well as the low orbital hotels that started accepting guests. However, accommodation in space is still expensive for the average household, so the suborbital flights with thirty minutes weightlessness during the three-hour flight, with four hours preparation, will for some time be the most popular trip.

The spacelines might however in the future face fierce competition from space elevators, like the one that are projected for construction start within a couple of years. Once it is fully functional it will start to ship cargo to space, but it will as soon as possible accept passengers to get back the giant investment. Even though the elevator become successful, it will take several years before there will be more elevators in the world, to get in the competition for the space traffic with the spacelines.

Argument: Apart from the few tourists that already have been out in space, commercial space flights will soon be available for a broader public. Several organizations plan to put the first man on Mars by year 2030 and the launch window in January/February 2031 is possible. This combined will generate a great interest in the suborbital flights, which will lower the price.

Questions: What current tourist destinations/attractions will suffer from the development of space tourism? What activities will there be at the accommodations in space, for people to stay longer? How will the future interest in space tourism affect education and common knowledge about space among people?

Icelandic Hydrogen Finally Pushed Gasoline Off the Road

2011-11-19T09:03:18Z

November 19, 2040 - Today was a historic day for Iceland when their President this morning at a symbolic ceremony officially shut down the last gasoline pump in the country. Iceland is a model country when it comes to the fuel transition from gasoline to hydrogen and became today the first country in the world to complete it.]]> This date has been planned for about 5 years so it came as no surprise to the Icelanders that they can no longer fill their cars with gasoline. The governmental subventions for motorists to scrap their gasoline vehicles, combined with a mature used cars market of hydrogen vehicles due to their early adoption have made the transition possible. Another key factor has been the low price of hydrogen, Iceland has the cheapest hydrogen in the world since their domestic production meets demand.

Iceland is not only self-sufficient with hydrogen, all of it is produced through electrolysis based on hydro- and geothermal power. This means that 100% of the hydrogen consumed in Icelandic cars are produced from renewable sources, known to the consumer as Re-Hydro, compared to about 10% of the hydrogen in the US cars.

The transition has also resulted in that Iceland now has the most modern car fleet in the world. Half of the 233,000 vehicles are hydrogen-hybrids and half are fuel cell models, even though now three of four cars sold are fuel cell.

35 years ago the Icelandic car fleet consumed as much gasoline as the marine fleet, but due to the automotive subventions and the longer life length of boats, the marine fleet has not been able to keep pace. It will most likely take another 10 years before the last Icelandic fishing boat with a diesel engine is taken out of service. By then Iceland will have decreased their oil consumption with about 80% since year 2005.

For sentimental reasons some people had saved their gasoline vehicles to fill them up on the last day, so they can enjoy the smell of gasoline cruising around the island for the last time. The last man at the pump wasn’t there to be sentimental though: “I hope this tank will be enough to get me around to the car dealers today, cause I haven’t bought a hydrogen yet”.

Argument: The development of hydrogen-fueled cars is based on several different sources, with the optimistic scenarios for a fast introduction on the market, to the book The Hype about Hydrogen by Joseph J. Romm. The partly governmental initiative Icelandic New Energy is aiming for a total conversion to hydrogen in the transportation sector in Iceland to year 2050.

Questions: Is there any other country that has a better chance than Iceland to make a full transition away from the car gasoline society? What other positive effects will this have on the Icelandic economy, society and environment?

By Pontus Edenberg

Seafood Consumption to New Heights in the US

2011-11-07T08:26:46Z

November 7, 2025 - Last year the Americans consumed more than 6.6 billion pounds (3.0 million metric tons) edible weight of seafood for the first time. This is 18.9 pounds per person, which is a new record up 1.6% from the year before, compared to 16.6 pounds per person 20 years ago.]]> The main reason for the increase is that seafood in general has become cheaper over the years, due to the fact that more than 50% of the supply now is farm-raised. The development of new techniques in aquaculture has made production more flexible and less expensive. The most popular seafood last year was still shrimp, salmon, tilapia, and catfish.

Argument: The information is a revision of Seafood Vision 2020 by H.M. Johnson & Associates, based on the US consumption of seafood in year 2004 published by NOAA Fisheries Service.

Questions: How will the increase of seafood consumption in the US affect the beef and chicken industry? Will the development in aquaculture give new possibilities in other marine areas?

South Korea has the Highest Proportion of Senior Citizens

2011-11-01T08:21:40Z

November 1, 2050 - With 37.3% senior citizens of the total population, South Korea has the highest proportion in the world today. South Korea has thereby passed Japan where 36.5% are over the age of 65.]]> Japan has currently though the highest life expectancy rate at birth for any population ever, with 88.3 years compared to 84.4 years for the population of South Korea.

The ratio of senior citizens compared to the economically active population (age 15-64) in South Korea has increased to 69.4% compared to only 37.3% 20 years ago. However, elderly people generally work longer before they retire. Even though people live longer than ever before in South Korea, the total population continues to decrease due to the low fertility rate and is now 44.6 million.

Argument: According to the Ministry of Health and Welfare in South Korea, and the United Nations, South Korea will have the highest proportion of senior citizens in the world by year 2050.

Questions: How will the society change when the proportion of aging people will increase? What kind of products and services will they be interested in? Sine they in general will be healthier than today, will there be new activities for them?

Deaths from HIV in the US Continue to Decline

2011-10-24T08:17:07Z

October 24, 2030 - For the first time in 45 years the number of deaths from HIV in the US will be below 5,500 this year. Since the peak in 1995 when almost 55,000 people gave in for the disease, casualties have declined.]]> The reason for the declining mortality from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is due to more knowledge among the general population of how to be protected against the disease, and the availability of more effective highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). The last decades have seen progress in the developing of medicines to treat AIDS however there is no definite cure in sight.

Even though these numbers for the US are satisfying, AIDS has globally been outstanding in causing more deaths than any other epidemic, now counting more than 180 million people worldwide since it was recognized in year 1981. The projected life expectancy rate at birth are now five years lower in the whole of Africa, and the population is 280 million lower, than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS.

Argument: According to the study Comparing The Public Health Burden of Chronic Hepatitis C and HIV Infection in United States, deaths from HIV in the US will be 4,200-6,700 in year 2030. The numbers of deaths worldwide from AIDS have been published by the United Nations in the report The Impact of AIDS.

Questions: The human population will be 3.5% lower in year 2030 than it would have been without the occurrence of AIDS and even if a cure is found, more than 40 million people will die before the epidemic is extinct. What is the loss of value for humanity to loose such a big part of the population? Can that value be invested today to prevent the disease to spread further?

Senior Drivers Account for 25% of US Driver Fatalities

2011-10-19T08:13:15Z

October 19, 2030 - Drivers aged 65 and older account for 25% of the total driver fatalities in the US, a figure that has doubled over the last 30 years. The reason for the increase is mainly the aging population. ]]> Older drivers are though less represented in police reported car crashes, 16% of total, but due to age related physiological changes, they are more likely to die from their injuries.

Of all fatal traffic accidents, almost half of them are due to misjudgment, and one-third are related to psychological factors, mainly lack of sleep and inattention. The total number of fatal accidents however, continues to decrease in relation to vehicle-miles of travel, because of the latest inventions within the safety area.

Different solutions have been discussed in making driving more safe for older people, but something you can do yourself if you are in that age group is to take a refresher driving course, get regular check-ups for hearing, vision and general health, and stay strong and healthy through activity and exercise.

Argument: According to the report Older driver involvements in police reported crashes and fatal crashes: trends and projections drivers aged 65 and older will account for 25% of the total driver fatalities in the US by year 2030.

Questions: Since frailty of older people, where drivers aged 70-74 are twice as likely to die when involved in a crash compared to drivers aged 30-59 (for drivers aged 80 and older the risk is five times as high), their need when an accident occur differs from younger people. Will there be special senior safety packages available, for instance including wider seat belts?

US Medicare Costs Now 7.5% of GDP

2011-10-04T08:06:56Z

October 4, 2035 - The US administration announced today that Medicare costs for this year will be 7.5% of GDP. This is the highest number ever and almost three times as much as 30 years ago. The reason for the increase is of course the aging population.]]> Five years ago, the youngest people born during the baby boom (a period of time with exceptional birth rates, from 1946, after the end of the Second World War, to 1965) reached age 65 and became eligible for Medicare. This year, Medicare provides coverage for 83 million people who are 65 and older or disabled.

The Medicare costs will continue to increase in the future, with another 10 million eligible by year 2055, with a total of 9.8% of GDP.

Argument: According to United States Department of Health and Human Services the costs for Medicare will be 7.5% of GDP by year 2035.

Questions: In 2077 there will only be two workers on every Medicare beneficiary, compared to four workers today, which will put a unprecedented pressure on the working generation. What kind of system is needed to take care of this problem?

First Marathon Under Two Hours

2011-09-30T08:03:50Z

September 30, 2030 - Yesterday the 20-year-old Ethiopian wonderchild Demeke Retta took his first victory in the Berlin Marathon and became the first man under two hours ever! The new record is one hour 59 minutes 47 seconds.]]> This was Demeke's third victory in a major marathon of only five starts and he was of course very happy: "I knew I had the race with two kilometers left, but I wasn't sure to break the record, it's incredible!" The temperature was ideal, increasing from ten degrees Celsius at the start to 17 at the finish.

Demeke was helped by the tough pace set by South African Peter Radebe, who opened the first half in 60:12 minutes, but finished second on personal best 2:00:32. "I wasn't that worried since I felt very strong today and had decided to do my own race from the start", said Demeke and commended Peter for a great race.

Both Peter and Demeke beat the previous record set in Rotterdam Marathon three years ago of 2:00:54. The Marathon world record has progressed from the Australian Derek Clayton to be the first under 2:10 in 1969, and Paul Tergat from Kenya to go under 2:05 in 2003, to now be under two hours.

Argument: According to the study Mathematical analysis of running performance and world running records by Francois Peronnet and Guy Thibault, the Marathon world record will be under two hours in year 2030.

Questions: Humans can't improve world records indefinitely, and according to Peronnet and Thibault it is physical impossible for a man to run a marathon faster than 1:48:25. What will happen to world record sports when we get close to the ultimate limit?